Mock drafts are tough this year because so much hinges on what happens with the first few spots, and specifically the first pick overall, that predicting the rest of the first round is dicey.

It’s not outside the realm of possibility that a last minute deal could be made for the Dolphins to deal the first pick, or more likely, another top five team dealing their pick to trade down to someone like the Eagles.

Here’s a look at the first few picks, with predictions:

1. Miami Dolphins: Jake Long

The offensive line needs the most help of any position on the Dolphins roster. Jake Long is an excellent right tackle and run blocker. Some day he isn’t up to the challenge of left tackle and that his pass blocking skills need work. Bill Parcells wants to run the ball, and Jake can help him do it.

The matter isn’t so clear cut, however. The Dolphins want to pay the number one pick less than Russel got last year, and Jake Long’s agent reportedly wants more. There have also been rumors that Jake didn’t want to move to Miami and would prefer to play elsewhere. This sounds a little hard to swallow as there are a lot worse places to play and worse guys to play for. If this is true, and Long’s agent is playing hardball, Bill Parcellls likely wouldn’t waste time on the guy. Rumors today have also been circulating that Jake and the Dolphins are finally close to signing a deal, but pundits over at Pro Football Talk are suggesting the stories are a ruse started by Parcells.

I personally like Chris Long as the best fit for the team and the king of guy you can build around. The problem with this is Jason Taylor. Chris Long would likely play DE/OLB in a 3-4 scheme and would be somewhat redundant with Taylor, whose future in Miami is questionable. In a recent interview, Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland said the team is looking for a “defensive pillar” to build the team around. This was said while the team was negotiating with Jake Long. Was this an honest slip up, a sign of things to come or a deliberate attempt at misdirection? We’ll find out on Saturday.

The last name to consider at this spot is Vernon Gholston, who would fill a similar role as Chris Long. Gholston is a top talent, and is flexible enough to play where needed. He also might be able to be had for less than Jake or Chris.

I don’t see any chance of the Phins taking Matt Ryan. Miami seems to be high on Michigan QB Chad Henne, and think he’s just as good as Ryan. Parcells also seems to have faith in John Beck.

2. St. Louis Rams: Chris Long

If Miami passes on Jake Long, many think the Rams will take him, otherwise it comes down to Chris Long and Vernon Gholston, with the pick going to Chris. There was talk that Jake Long’s agent was using the Rams as leverage with Miami, saying that the Rams are willing to pay his client the big bucks if Miami didn’t pony up.

The Rams are looking to play a 3-4 defense and there are some doubts whether or not DT Glen Dorsey is up for the challenge.

I think the Rams are going to take whichever of the Longs are left on the board, or take Jake if both are available. I’m not buying into the rumors that the Rams have Darren McFadden at the top of their board.

This is a good time to talk about overall draft trends. Depending on who goes early, we may see a run on certain positions. If the Dolphins chose Vernon Gholston and the Rams pick Chris Long, then other teams might feel more pressure to pick a defensive end up sooner rather than risk getting shut out later. Guys like Derrick Harvey could move up significantly. Likewise if OTs Jake Long and Ryan Clady both go high.

When it comes to Quarterbacks, Matt Ryan will likely go fairly high, but exactly where he lands could have a big impact on the rest of the crop. If Ryan went first, Brian Brohm’s stock would improve greatly. If Ryan drops down a bit, Brohm might not go until the second round. OK, back to the action.

3. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan

This is a tough pick. I think after having been burned by Michael Vick, the Falcons are looking for a franchise quarterback that can be a team leader. Ryan can be a big play guy and can be a leader in the huddle. He’s proved himself in clutch games at the end of his career in Boston College. His interceptions are a bit troubling and many question if he really is worth a top 5 pick. The problem is there aren’t that many good QBs available this year and while Ryan might not be the next Dan Marino, he’s the best that’s available right now.

If the Falcons didn’t go with Ryan, the pick would likely go to Glen Dorsey or possibly one of the Longs if available.

4. Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden

The smart pick for Oakland is to pick the best available defensive end, and that’s a definite possibility. The bottom line is that Al Davis is making the pick, and he just can’t say no to the exciting McFadden.

If Oakland does pass on Darren, we might see another team try to trade up to grab him as soon as possible.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Ryan Clady

The Chiefs would love to see Jake Long fall into their laps, but the odds are against it. The smart move for KC is to get the best OT they can find and the Boise State star is the best available. The Chiefs need to get some protection for Brodie Croyle and would be best served picking up Clady. At this point in the draft however, Clady won’t be the best available overall talent and it might be too early to pick him. Glenn Dorsey is going to make a very tempting target if a team is willing to take the risk with his injury history. Also, if Matt Ryan falls the Chiefs could give him a look, but I think it’s unlikely.

6. NY Jets: Vernon Gholston

This is another tough one to call. The Jets are hoping Oakland makes a wise choice and goes with a DE, letting McFadden fall. If Darren is available, the Jets will undoubtedly take him. If McFadden goes to Oakland, the Jets will likely start working the phone to arrange to trade down. If they can’t find a suitable offer, the safest bet is to take the best available and in this case it’s Gholston. Despite signing Calvin Pace earlier, the Jets could benefit from having a guy like Vernon on the team to get at opposing quarterbacks.

7. New England Patriots: Leodis McKelvin

The CB from Troy will help the Pats fill in holes created by the departure of Asante Samuel and Randall Gay. I’ve seen a lot of other theories for the Pats at this spot, including picking up a guard or trading the pick, but to me a quality CB is a priority right now that makes the most sense for New England to address.

8. Baltimore Ravens: Glenn Dorsey

The Ravens are desperately hoping that Matt Ryan drops down to this spot. If he does, it’s a done deal. The Ravens would also like Leodis McKelvin, and he could very well be available. If Ryan is off the table the other choice left is Dorsey. Atlanta takes Dorsey early, Matt Ryan will be the Ravens next starting QB, but I like Atlanta picking up a QB and Dorsey dropping a bit. The Ravens will be entertaining offers for the pick if Ryan can’t be had.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: Sedrick Ellis

The Bengals need help stopping the run and plugging up the center. Odds are that Dorsey will be gone, and Sedrick Ellis is a top notch player that will be a big boost the the Bengals’ D-line.

10. New Orleans Saints: Mike Jenkins

If NO can’t get their hands on Dorsey or Ellis, they’ll look at one of the available cornerbacks, with South Florida’s Mike Jenkins being the one who gets the nod. Dominique Rogers-Cromartie will also get consideration here.

So there’s a quick run down of the top 10 picks and how I see them going down. There are a lot of ways this Saturday’s action could go down and it will be interesting to watch.

Brian Cashman: Joba Chamberlain is our setup guy for now.

Welcome to the wonderful world of the Yankees front office.

First of all, there is a hint of truth to what Hank is saying. Joba should be a starter, and a good starter is more valuable than a good setup man. The point is that Joba isn’t ready to be a starter right now.

Chamberlain is probably on a 150 inning limit this season, to help him transition into a starting role without wearing him out prematurely and risking injury.

A few people like what they see in Joba and picture him as the next great Yankee closer, and he could fill that role, but the important thing is that the Yanks will get a lot more mileage out of him as the next great Yankee starter. There are plenty of guys who don’t have what it takes to be a starter that will be stepping up to fill in Rivera’s role in the next year or two.

The problem with Steinbrenner’s comments is that he is undermining his manager and general manager, essentially calling them idiots. I think it’s pretty safe to say either of them know a fair bit more about baseball than Steinbrenner, and Hank running his mouth off does a lot to prove that.

Times like this make it hard to be a fan of the Bombers. Sigh.

The problems inherited by Girardi are numerous. First of all, he needs to develop Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes. Many thought Hughes was ready to be a star out of the gate this year, matching his 2007 performances. Ian Kennedy was predicted to fill the back end of the rotation nicely, and become a league average innings muncher who would give up some runs, but get you to the 7th inning stretch. Bringing one young pitcher along is do-able. Bringing two along is tough. Bringing two along with a guy like Mussina who is lucky to reach the 6th inning becomes almost impossible.

Girardi’s veteran pitchers may be a bit too “veteran”. Andy Pettitte has proven to be a workhorse who can get batters out and get through a lot of innings even when he doesn’t have his best stuff. He still has a great pick off move and many other intangibles that make him a great pitcher. He needs run support, however, and can’t win games all by himself. More importantly is that Pettitte is getting a little older and will occasionally miss starts with back problems and other minor ailments. With Andy, it’s good to have a backup plan - a long reliever who can make spot starts if Pettitte needs to sit one out. Girardi doesn’t share this point of view with me, refusing to bring up a long reliever like Rasner (or Karstens or *shudder* Igawa).

The other veteran, Mussina, is acting like his starting days are done. He gives up a lot of runs without giving you many innings. He continues to be stubborn rather than smart when it comes to pitch selection and location, and it’s becoming increasingly costly for the team. Maybe Mussina could move into the long reliever spot but his days as a starter are numbered.

The handling of the bullpen has been suspect in my opinion. Joe never brought a long reliever along after spring training. The possible rain game in  Kansas city seemed to shake up Bruney and Kennedy a bit when in retrospect it might have been better to let them stay in their usual patterns. He’s brought in some relievers to soon and brought out some guys who were pitching well. Joe still shows some old-fashioned tendencies to use certain guys in certain innings, when he should focus more on using the best guys in the best situations. If you’re at a critical junction in the 6th inning and your starter needs to come up, bring in Joba when it counts rather than letting Farnsworth give up the crucial runs and letting Joba close out a meaningless game or simply sit out.

For Girardi, this trifecta of Mussina, Hughes, and Kennedy is proving to be the toughest challenge, and one that is going to require the help of the front office to sort out. Joe’s recent interviews with the press are becoming more and more strained as he begins losing his patience with the pitching staff.

The problems given to Joe to solve aren’t purely pitching related. Girardi has a plethora of guys who would be better suited in the DH spot than playing a position. Abreu, Matsui, Giambi and Posada (with his sore shoulder) don’t quite provide the defense you’d like. Then you have guys like Damon, Duncan and Ensberg who add to the conundrum of what to do with all of these players.

Joe is saddled with guys like Wilson Betemit, whose utility as a utility infielder is pretty minimal and whose bat isn’t much better. There’s talent in the wings with players like Alberto Gonzalez, but the Yankees don’t like to waste mediocre veterans (look at Farnsworth for another classic example).

The Yankees front office has delivered Joe quite a mishmash to sort out. If the Yankees are going to be successful, Girardi will need help getting rid of the dead weight and excess and filling a need or two. It’s early in the season, but before long someone will have to realize the current plan isn’t working and someone will need to step in and lend a hand.

In the end though, the success of Joe Girardi’s first year as Yankee skipper will come down to how he manages his starting pitching and how they perform. Currently it’s the team’s biggest liability and proving to be the toughest challenge early on. It will be interesting to see how things pan out. Back in his Florida days, Joe earned a reputation for using and abusing his young arms, many of whom were never the same after he left. He’ll need a different attitude here, where the guys he is dealing with are expected to be the pillars of the team for years to come.

Hawkins has been booed for choosing to wear 21, a number some Yankee fans think should be revered for former Yankee Paul O’Neill.

The sad thing is, Hawkins wore 21 as a tribute to Roberto Clemente. It’s too bad some booing fans at Yankee stadium were too short sighted to see this.

Paul O’Neil was a great player and leader for the Yankees, but he was not the type of guy whose number you retire.

I’m not a big fan of teams retiring numbers. My alma mater, Syracuse University, had a proud tradition associated with the number 44, worn by Jim Brown, Ernie Davis and Floyd little among others. Watching young players put on the 44 jersey and try to live up to the expectations that came with it added an element of excitement to the season. By retiring the number, SU sent a message that new kids can’t be expected to match past heroes. I was lucky to watch Rob Konrad wear the fabled 44 from 1995-98 as he added to the number’s legacy. Sadly, that legacy has now ended.

Yankee fans should embrace a player carrying on the legacy of  one of the game’s greats. Why not let Roberto’s number be worn by a Yankee?  Let’s have a little more perspective in the future folks.

Ortiz went 2 for 5, getting his first hit in a long time and getting a critical hit in the 9th (and then was replaced with a pinch runner who then scored the go-ahead run on a Manny Ramirez homer).

Could the Papi shirt buried under Yankee stadium in an effort to hex the Yankees have actually cursed the big man instead? I don’t know but since it was dug up Ortiz’s slump has disappeared.

Chien-Ming Wang was dominating in his 2-hit complete game on Friday evening as the Bombers won 4-1. Clay Buchholz pitched a very respectable game for Boston, but his performance couldn’t match Wang’s. Boston had to go to Timlin, Okajima, Lopez and Aardsma to finish the game,and their bullpen was a little depleted heading to game 2.

The second game of the series featured Mussina against Beckett. Both pitchers were decent, but Beckett was just a little better, going 6 innings compared to Mussina’s 5 and was the difference in the game. There was quite a bit of controversy when Joe Girardi, down 2-1, decided to let Mussina pitch to Manny Ramirez with 2 out and runners on 2nd and 3rd rather than walk him and face Kevin Youkilis.

In the end, Manny drove in runs and the Sox padded their lead. The Yanks had a few chances but couldn’t deliver in the clutch. Mussina kept Yankee fans on their toes, pitching into and out of some tight spots each inning. Bruney and Hawkins kept it close in relief but New York hitting wasn’t up to the challenge and Boston’s core relievers can get the job done. The final score had Boston on top 4-3.

For the final game of the series, Phil Hughes got the start against Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K was wild, throwing quite a few pitches and giving up some runs in his 5 innings of work. Hughes was horrendous and couldn’t even get out of the 3rd inning. Ross Ohlendorf pitched 3 solid innings of relief and could turn into the long reliever NY is looking for. The Yankees once again had some chances to narrow the gap or even take the lead but in the end the Bombers just left men on base and couldn’t drive in enough runs in critical situations. Boston gave the Yankees every opportunity, once again bringing in Timlin to give up a solo home run and to put a couple other runners on base, but Javy Lopez pitched out of the Jam and Yankee hitters fell short as Boston won 8-5.

Red Sox fans should be pleased with the results. Manny Ramirez is on a tear and the rest of the team is hitting well. Sean Casey is hitting well off the bench. David Ortiz can’t get near the ball and continues his horrible slump. Terry Francona sat the big man on Sunday and Ramirez went 2 for 3 hitting in the DH slot. Dice-K looked his usual crazy self on the mound, Beckett started looking more like his old self and Buchholz was solid. Papelbon delivered in the clutch and the only real weakness Boston showed in pitching was with rusty Timlin, who’s still working the kinks out after being on the DL.

Yankees fans might be a little worried at this point. Mussina wasn’t bad, but only lasted 5 innings and probably should have been pulled an out or two sooner. He needs to be able to pitch a full 6. Wang has proven that he’s the club’s ace and Hughes hasn’t shown anything good in his last couple of outings. The Yankees bullpen continues to be strong with Ohlendorf impressing and Hawkins settling down. The Yankees next biggest problem after starting pitching is their offense. They’ve been getting more hits and scoring some runs, but clutch hitting has been non-existent. Jose Molina injured his hamstring on Sunday and Posada’s arm was poor, allowing two stolen bases in one inning. The Yankees are going to need to make a move at catcher. Francisco Cervelli is still recovering from breaking his arm during spring training. Chad Moeller is the most experienced guy waiting in the minors, but at this stage in his career, you’d hate to see him in your starting lineup.

The Red Sox are coming around and looking like a defending World Series championship team. The Yankees are sitting at the bottom of the AL East and have some issues to work out before they start challenging good teams.

The New York Post ran one of their typical pieces with the headline "Joe Blew It", announcing his breaking one of the ten commandments of baseball by pitching to Ramirez. A few other sources have been critical of Joe’s decision in that situation and so I decided to take a little closer look.

One argument is that Joe should have brought in a reliever rather than let Mussina, who was starting to struggle, continue to pitch. That’s a tough call. You like your starters to come in and pitch at least six innings, and Moose had gotten out of some jams before. Brian Bruney had been pitching well in relief all year and guys like Ohlendorf, Traber, Hawkins, Farnsworth were all available for early inning stints with Chamberlain and Rivera on tap for the late innings. When Bruney did come in he gave up another big hit for a run, which ended up credited to Mussina. The decision whether or not to pull Moose in favor of Bruney was a tough one, and at the time I was surprised to see Mussina stay in, giving the well rested bullpen that was available.

The real issue I’d like to take a look at is whether or not Mussina should have walked Manny to face the next batter instead. On deck was Kevin Youkilis, who has been hitting the ball well again this year and is no slouch at the plate. Mussina surmised that he had just as good of a chance to get Ramirez out as Youkilis and Girardi let him pitch.

To get to the bottom of this, let’s look at some numbers. These stats are averages for AVG/OBP/SLG taken over the most recent complete seasons, 2005-2007.

Manny Ramirez  .302/.404/.569

Kevin Youkilis    .283/.386/.438

Manny definitely has an edge, especially in slugging. If we subtract each player’s numbers we can see exactly how much worse Youkilis is:

Difference:  -.019/-.018/-.131

James Click has a nice chapter in the book Baseball Between the Numbers and in it he details the math behind intentional walks. In situations when there are two on with two outs, Click concludes that the second batter has to be 60 points worse in average, 95 points worse in on-base percentage and 175 points worse in slugging. (I’m not going to go into detail on how Click reached these conclusions, check out the book or his work at Baseball Prospectus.) Despite Manny’s impressive numbers, Youkilis is too good of a hitter to meet these criteria, and it looks like Girardi made the right call.

We can compare some splits, to see if the situation could have affected matters any. With runners in scoring position, each player’s stats looked like this (again from 2005-2007):

Manny Ramirez .320/.443/.614

Kevin Youkilis .322/.420/.515

Difference:  +.002/-.023/-.099

With runners in scoring position, the gap narrows in 2 out of 3 categories, with Youkilis even having a better AVG than Manny.

Lastly, let’s take a look at the numbers vs. RHP

Manny Ramirez .304/.392/.563

Kevin Youkilis .284/.380/.450

Difference:   -.020/-.012/-.113

Slightly less than the 3-year totals but not by much.

While Manny Ramirez is the superior hitter overall, with runners in scoring position and against right handed pitchers, the difference still isn’t enough to justify an intentional walk with Youkilis backing him up. Joe Girardi made the right call in pitching to Manny.

The answer?

58 pitches by Charles “Red” Barrett on August 10th, 1944 in a 2-0 win for Barrett’s Boston Braves over the Cincinatti Reds. Red Barret gave up 2 hits, no walks and no strikeouts.

Here’s the Yankees lineup for tonight:

Melky Cabrera, CF
Robinson Cano, 2B
Bobby Abreu, RF
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Hideki Matsui, LF
Jorge Posada, DH
Jason Giambi, 1B
Jose Molina, C
Alberto Gonzalez, SS

Joe Girardi is mixing things up once again. Melky Cabrera is moving up to the leadoff position. Abreu is back in right and Matsui is back in left. Jeter will likely be out for the whole series and Alberto Gonzalez will continue to fill in. I like Posada in the DH slot. Giambi is back in at first and Ensberg is back on the bench.

The Red Sox lineup looks like this:

Coco Crisp, CF
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
David Ortiz, DH
Manny Ramirez, LF
Kevin Youkilis, 3B
J.D. Drew, RF
Jason Varitek, C
Sean Casey, 1B
Julio Lugo, SS

Third baseman Mike Lowell is on the 15 day DL. Sean Casey moves in at first and Youkilis shifts to third.

Chien Ming Wang gets the start vs. Clay Buchholz. Buchholz threw a no-hitter last year but had some problems in his first start this year. Wang has showed he is the Yankees ace in his first two starts. The Yankees have the advantage in starting pitching tonight and if Wang can get 7 innings the Bronx Bombers will be in good shape.

Chamberlain and Rivera worked last night’s game and so that leaves Bruney, Traber, Ohlendorf, Hawkins and Farnsworth. Hawkins and Farnsworth are huge liabilities. It will be interesting to see what happens and who Girardi goes to if the game is close.

The Red Sox used Delcarmen, Okajima, Tavarez and Papelbon last night, leaving Aardsma and Corey with fresh arms.

The pitching advantage right now goes to NY with Wang at the top of his game and the Yankees having more options in the bullpen (unless Hawkins or Farnsworth comes in). Boston has been hitting well but the Yankees started coming to life offensively last night. I give the Yanks the nod for game 1.

Tomorrow’s game should have Mussina pitching against Beckett. Mussina looked better in his last outing than Beckett, but Josh is Boston’s ace. If he’s got his stuff back Beckett should get the win, but Moose can still throw some dominating games. The final game of the series features Phil “the Franchise” Hughes against Daisuke “Dice-K” Matsuzaka. Dice-K has been pitching better than Hughes but both of these guys are unpredictable. This one will come down to bullpen pitching and I give the Yanks the edge here.

It should be a great series!